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Journal-Article

Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data

Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound …

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Who Gains from Corporate Tax Cuts?

Goods producers increase their capital expenditure and employment in response to a cut in marginal corporate income tax rates or an increase in investment tax credits. In contrast, …

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Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain

The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918–39, has remained a …

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Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment

In response to a change in interest rates, younger firms not paying dividends adjust both their capital expenditure and borrowing significantly more than older firms paying …

james-cloyne

Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?

The answer is ``yes'' for personal income taxes but ``no'' for corporate income taxes. Using narrative-identified US federal tax changes post-World War II and disaggregated …

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Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches

Using a novel source of quasi-experimental variation in interest rates, we develop a new approach to estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution (EIS). In the U.K., the …

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Monetary Policy when Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism

Using household survey data for the U.S. and the U.K., we show that the aggregate response of consumption to interest rate changes is driven by households with a mortgage. Outright …

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The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach

We investigate the effect of house prices on household borrowing using administrative mortgage data from the United Kingdom and a new empirical approach. The data contain …

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Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes

Using a new narrative measure of fiscal policy shocks for the U.K., we show that households with mortgage debt exhibit large and significant consumption responses to tax changes. …

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