Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations
Using long-run cross-country panel data, we document that (i) contemporaneous credit growth strongly predicts contemporaneous equity returns with positive sign, and (ii) lagged …
Monetary and Financial Spillovers: New Historical Evidence from Germany
Using newly identified exogenous variation in German monetary policy from 580 policy meetings between 1974 and 1998, we provide new evidence on the role of the exchange rate regime …
james-cloyne
Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus
We study the macroeconomic effects of corporate income taxes on innovation and productivity in the United States. Using narrative-identified tax changes from 1950 to 2019, we find …
james-cloyne
State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity
An impulse response is the dynamic average effect of an intervention across horizons. We use the well-known Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to explore a response’s …
james-cloyne
Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes
Centre for Macroeconomics Discussion Paper 2014-13. PDF available above.