James Cloyne

James Cloyne

Professor of Economics

University of California, Davis (opens in new tab)

Bio

I am a Professor of Economics at the University of California Davis. I gained my PhD from University College London and also previously worked at the Bank of England. My main field is macroeconomics, and my research broadly focuses on monetary and fiscal policy, including the use of historical and micro data in macroeconomics.

Affiliations

  • Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research
  • Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Institute for Fiscal Studies, CESifo

Associate Editor

  • American Economic Review
  • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
  • International Journal of Central Banking

Research Interests

Macroeconomics Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Public Finance Economic History

Working Papers

James Cloyne, Òscar Jordà, Sanjay R. Singh, Alan M. Taylor (2025). Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations (opens in new tab). Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2025-15.
PDF: Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations Cite: Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations DOI: Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations
James Cloyne, Patrick Hürtgen, Alan M. Taylor (2025). Monetary and Financial Spillovers: New Historical Evidence from Germany (opens in new tab). NBER Working Paper 30485.
PDF: Monetary and Financial Spillovers: New Historical Evidence from Germany Cite: Monetary and Financial Spillovers: New Historical Evidence from Germany
James Cloyne, Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz, Paolo Surico (2025). Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus (opens in new tab). NBER Working Paper 30246.
PDF: Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus Cite: Short-Term Tax Cuts, Long-Term Stimulus
James Cloyne, Òscar Jordà, Alan M. Taylor (2023). State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity (opens in new tab). NBER Working Paper 30971.
PDF: State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity Cite: State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity

Publications

James Cloyne, Patrick Hürtgen, Nicholas Dimsdale (2025). Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data (opens in new tab). Journal of Political Economy Volume 133:2, 568-603.
PDF: Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data Cite: Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data DOI: Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data
James Cloyne, Ezgi Kurt, Paolo Surico (2025). Who Gains from Corporate Tax Cuts? (opens in new tab). Journal of Monetary Economics Volume 149, January, 103722.
PDF: Who Gains from Corporate Tax Cuts? Cite: Who Gains from Corporate Tax Cuts? DOI: Who Gains from Corporate Tax Cuts?
James Cloyne, Natacha Postel-Vinay, Nicholas Dimsdale (2024). Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain (opens in new tab). Review of Economic Studies, Volume 91(4), 388-423.
PDF: Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain Cite: Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain DOI: Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain
James Cloyne, Paolo Surico, Clodomiro Ferreira, Maren Froemel (2023). Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment (opens in new tab). Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 21(6), 2586-2634.
PDF: Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment Code: Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment Cite: Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment DOI: Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment
James Cloyne, Joseba Martinez, Haroon Mumtaz, Paolo Surico (2023). Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation? (opens in new tab). American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, Volume 113, 377-381.
PDF: Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation? Code: Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation? Cite: Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation? DOI: Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?
James Cloyne, Lena Boneva, Martin Weale, Tomasz Wieladek (2020). Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data (opens in new tab). Economic Journal, Volume 130(627), 555-586.
PDF: Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data Cite: Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data DOI: Firms' Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data
James Cloyne, Michael Best, Ethan Ilzetzki, Henrik Kleven (2020). Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches (opens in new tab). Review of Economic Studies, Volume 87(2), 656-690.
PDF: Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches Cite: Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches DOI: Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution Using Mortgage Notches
James Cloyne, Clodomiro Ferreira, Paolo Surico (2020). Monetary Policy when Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism (opens in new tab). Review of Economic Studies, Volume 87(1), 102-129.
PDF: Monetary Policy when Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Code: Monetary Policy when Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Cite: Monetary Policy when Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism DOI: Monetary Policy when Households Have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism
James Cloyne, Kilian Huber, Ethan Ilzetzki, Henrik Kleven (2019). The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach (opens in new tab). American Economic Review, Volume 109(6), 2104-2136.
PDF: The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach Cite: The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach DOI: The Effect of House Prices on Household Borrowing: A New Approach
James Cloyne, Paolo Surico (2017). Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes (opens in new tab). Review of Economic Studies, Volume 84(1), 45-81.
PDF: Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes Code: Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes Cite: Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes DOI: Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes
James Cloyne, Patrick Hürtgen (2016). The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom (opens in new tab). American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Volume 8(4), 75-102.
PDF: The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom Code: The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom Cite: The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom DOI: The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom
James Cloyne, Lena Boneva, Martin Weale, Tomasz Wieladek (2016). The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in the UK (opens in new tab). International Journal of Central Banking, Volume 12(3), 161-195.
PDF: The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in the UK Cite: The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in the UK
James Cloyne, Ryland Thomas, Alex Tuckett, Samuel Wills (2015). An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE (opens in new tab). The Manchester School, Volume 83(S1), 51-82.
PDF: An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE Cite: An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE DOI: An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE
James Cloyne (2013). Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom (opens in new tab). American Economic Review, Volume 103(4), 1507-1528.
Shock Construction Code: Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom Full Narrative Dataset: Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom Unanticipated Shocks: Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom PDF: Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom Code: Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom Cite: Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom DOI: Discretionary Tax Changes and the Macroeconomy: New Narrative Evidence from the United Kingdom

Other

James Cloyne, Wendy Carlin (2024). Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics: Origins, Progress and Challenges (opens in new tab). In Macroeconomics: Institutions, Instability and Inequality, Carlin, W. and Soskice, D. (Eds). Oxford University Press.
PDF: Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics: Origins, Progress and Challenges Cite: Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics: Origins, Progress and Challenges
James Banks, James Cloyne, Monica Costa Dias, Matthias Parey, James Ziliak (2021). Special Issue on the 50th Anniversary of IFS (opens in new tab). Fiscal Studies Volume 40(4), 445-449.
PDF: Special Issue on the 50th Anniversary of IFS Cite: Special Issue on the 50th Anniversary of IFS
Abi Adams-Prassl, James Cloyne, Monica Costa Dias, Matthias Parey, James P. Ziliak (2020). The COVID-19 Economic Crisis (opens in new tab). Fiscal Studies Volume 41(3), 489-492.
PDF: The COVID-19 Economic Crisis Cite: The COVID-19 Economic Crisis
James Cloyne, Monica Costa Dias, Matthias Parey, James P. Ziliak (2020). COVID-19 and the Economy (opens in new tab). Fiscal Studies Volume 41(2), 257-258.
PDF: COVID-19 and the Economy Cite: COVID-19 and the Economy
James Cloyne (2018). Brexit: New Evidence and Policy Perspectives (opens in new tab). Fiscal Studies, Volume 39(4), 549-553.
PDF: Brexit: New Evidence and Policy Perspectives Cite: Brexit: New Evidence and Policy Perspectives DOI: Brexit: New Evidence and Policy Perspectives
Jon Bridges, James Cloyne, Ryland Thomas, Alex Tuckett (2016). The Analysis of Money and Credit During the Financial Crisis (opens in new tab). In Monetary Analysis at Central Banks, Cobham, D. (Ed), Palgrave-Macmillan.
PDF: The Analysis of Money and Credit During the Financial Crisis Cite: The Analysis of Money and Credit During the Financial Crisis
James Cloyne (2014). Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes (opens in new tab).
2011 Version: Government spending shocks, wealth effects and distortionary taxes

Contact Details

Mailing Address:
Department of Economics
University of California, Davis
One Shields Avenue
Davis, California 95616

Email: jcloyne@ucdavis.edu
Gmail: james.cloyne.econ@gmail.com